According to figures published by the CDMA Development Group (CDG), 99% of all 3G subscribers worldwide are currently using CDMA2000. By the end of July there were 15 million CDMA2000 users around the world and, according to the CDG, 1.8 million new subscribers are being signed up every month. During the first seven months of 2002 11 new CDMA2000 networks were launched, taking the total number of CDMA2000 operators to 18. The success of CDMA2000 has been most pronounced in the Korean and Japanese markets. In stark contrast, NTT DoCoMo has connected just 130,000 subscribers to its W-CDMA service FOMA and has set a much less ambitious target of garnering 6 million 3G customers by 2005.

Insight

CDMA2000 has put in a surprisingly strong early performance and has some excellent success stories – namely South Korea and Japan – to further enhance its image. The CDMA Development Group is working hard to leverage these early victories to win over any operators which remain undecided on their 3G evolution strategy. Qualcomm, inventor and most vocal supporter of the technology, should also be applauded for the role it has played in supporting the CDMA community through investment, marketing and technological development.

W-CDMA should still emerge eventually as the dominant standard, but it now seems likely that CDMA2000 will have a much larger share of the market than previously anticipated. There is strong momentum from all quarters – handset manufacturers, network operators and service providers. The real winners are the consumers, who are getting high speed packet data services, great handsets and nationwide coverage ahead of their peers in markets commited to GSM evolution.