Mobile services forecast to offset ARPU decline

Average revenue per user (ARPU) is set to decline slightly over the next three years, according to a new report from ARC Group. However, substantial increases in mobile subscriber numbers, especially in the Asia Pacific region, mean that the total mobile services market in dollar terms will grow by more than 100% by 2007. Mobile data will also increase strongly over the next three years, rising from under 10% of operators’ revenues in 2002 to over 20% in 2005, with further growth in prospect. Key contributors to this growth trend will be new applications for both consumers and business users, including online games and location-based services.

Written by ARC Group for PMN Mobile Industry Intelligence.


An average 20% of revenues from data services does not seem an unreasonable prediction for 2005 – many Western European operators are already at 10% – 15% and some Far Eastern networks are surging past 20%. Messaging, primarily text but increasingly multimedia, is likely to remain the dominant driver, while gaming is also likely to be another major earner.

It is interesting that ARC continues to refer to location-based services as a separate entity. PMN sees location capabilities being integrated into virtually all types of mobile application, rapidly moving away from the simplistic ‘where is my nearest?’ implementations which have dominated early deployments. Knowledge of the subscribers location will become a default feature of most networks, used to enhance existing applications rather than being billed as a separate application in itself.

Originally published by PMN Mobile Industry Intelligence, the subscription-based analysis and insight platform founded by Marek Pawlowski.

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